Reflections on 2023 and a look ahead

Excited for the new year? We certainly are! 🎉

It's a powerful practise to begin the new year with reflection before setting our sights on future goals.

‍

Reflections on EUR interest rates and a look ahead

Check out the 6 Month EURIBOR curve from today (light blue line - 2nd Jan '24) against the curve from 12 months ago (dark blue line - 3rd Jan '23):

‍

This time last year, we were bracing for a slew of interest rate hikes. The ECB didn't disappoint, with six hikes that took the deposit rate from 2.00% in December 2022 to 4.00% by September 2023. Back then, EU inflation was a whopping 11.1% in November 2022, but it has eased to 3.1% in November 2023—hovering just above the target 2%. The current EURIBOR curve anticipates rate cuts by the ECB, evident from the steep downward slope in the light blue line.

These curves are always on the move, shifting with the ebb and flow of market expectations as a result of new information. Keep up-to-date by visiting the "Interest Rate Curves" page in the app.

As the debate about a soft landing persists, it's clear central banks' work is not done. The path to stability is a marathon, not a sprint, and we're here to provide the data you need at every turn.

Wondering what this means for you?

‍

Here are 2 tips from BlackRock’s 2024 Global Outlook [1]:

• Plan with volatility in mind: Geopolitics will likely keep financial markets on their toes, so incorporating unpredictability into your investment strategy is crucial
• Ride the big waves: Seize opportunities presented by major trends like technological advancements (think AI) and the transition to a low-carbon economy (luckily this is one we know well). It's not just about leveraging changes like AI bring to the way we work but also the ancillary business opportunities they create, such as the growing need for data centers and clean energy to power advanced processors

Passing thoughts on AI

2023 also marked the year we all got very excited about ChatGPT. OpenAI's breakthrough not only advanced AI technology but also made it accessible to the masses. ChatGPT, a large language model, excels in tasks such as summarising and extracting information from documents, although it still faces challenges like occasional inaccuracies, known as 'hallucinations'.

Best way to think about AI: this is a summer-intern who graduated in the top 1% of their class that is available to you 24/7.

For best results, speak to it in the same way!

In 2024, we expect that when you use it to query documents, it will get better at pointing to sources and evaluating its own output. This gets closer to what tech-enthusiasts call an "agent". Once organisations are able to deploy these agents at scale and we learn to use them - that is when we will be able to realise boost in productivity we once thought ChatGPT would provide. Goldman Sachs thinks the boost to GDP as a result of AI will likely only realise in 2027 [2].

We continue to experiment with AI with a few cool use cases emerging. We already use it in Economic Events in the app and in 2024 you'll see it popping up in more places. Are you using AI already? We'd love to hear from you if so!

Reflections on building BlueGamma and a look ahead

Despite global challenges, the financing industry has shown remarkable resilience, particularly for high-quality assets with green credentials —a trend mirrored by BlueGamma's growth.

Last year we saw our user base quadruple and achieved a 100% renewal rate from our 2022 clients, many of whom have rolled out BlueGamma to additional teams within their organisations.

In response to your feedback, we broadened our scope beyond interest rates in 2023 to include forex, inflation forecasts and bond yields for corporates and sovereigns and began catering to teams outside of our usual infra / renewable client base.

2023 also saw the debut of DebtHub for funds and IPPs, uniting project financing, treasury, and asset management teams with a unified dashboard aggregating debt and derivative exposure across the org. With initial feedback being overwhelmingly positive, we're excited to build alongside many of you who regularly provide feedback.

Yet, this is just the beginning. We're relentlessly refining the app to ensure that BlueGamma remains the market data platform of choice for financing teams across funds, financial advisors and IPPs.

Your feedback and referrals have been invaluable, thank you for continuing to share. We have a few ideas of what we want to build in 2024 but we'd prefer to hear from you!

‍

So, to kick off 2024, what would you like to see more of?

See you around!